The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) condo market has experienced its first annual drop in rent prices since 2021, a noteworthy shift driven by a surge in condo completions. According to Urbanation Inc., condo rents in the GTHA declined by 1.2% year-over-year in Q2-2024, ending a three-year period of consistent rent increases. This softening in rents, highlighted by Urbanation President Shaun Hildebrand, is attributed to a temporary spike in condo completions, which is expected to taper off due to a significant decrease in new condo sales and construction activity.

Studios saw the steepest decline, with rents falling by 3.9%, averaging $2,047 for a 395 square foot unit. Rents for one-bedroom units decreased by 1.8%, while two-bedroom and three-bedroom units saw declines of 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively. Despite this decline, the condo market remains robust, with lease transactions reaching a record high of 16,169 units in Q2-2024, a 29% increase from the previous year. This was accompanied by a 47% increase in condo listings, driven by an 82% rise in newly registered condos.

The City of Toronto saw a 2.1% decrease in rents, averaging $2,765 for a 674 square foot unit, while rents in the 905 region rose by 2.0% to $2,610 for a 719 square foot unit. Vacancy rates for purpose-built rentals in the GTHA hit an 11-quarter high of 2.7%, with Toronto at 2.8% and the 905 region at 2.6%. Rent growth for these rentals slowed to a 2.2% annual pace, averaging $2,953 for 723 square feet.

Hildebrand noted that although there have been recent improvements in rental construction, the overall level of starts remains insufficient to meet long-term demand. This temporary cooling of the market highlights ongoing challenges in housing supply, which will continue to impact the GTHA rental landscape.

Have a mortgage financing question?
Please feel free to call or write.

Sarah Colucci, Mortgage Agent Level 2
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker 12176 
Direct: (647) 773-4849
Email: [email protected] 

Investing in real estate right now is a game-changer. As interest rates drop, the cost of borrowing plummets, making homeownership more accessible than ever. This is your moment to seize opportunities and secure assets that will appreciate over time.'

With Canada's high immigration levels, there's a growing demand for housing. Pair that with falling interest rates, making borrowing cheaper, and you have the perfect storm for a real estate boom. The fundamentals are aligning for a significant rise in property values.

At Mortgages by Sarah Colucci (Sherwood Mortgage Group), we’re here to guide you every step of the way. Let’s make smart investments together.


Sarah Colucci, Senior Mortgage Agent Level 2
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker 12176 
Direct: (647) 773-4849
Email: [email protected] 

Predicting property prices is akin to navigating the ever-evolving landscape of technology; it requires a deep understanding of various influencing factors. Recently, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, provided some insights that reflect the complex nature of economic management. Let's break down the key elements that can drive property prices up or down and analyze the current economic context, drawing from Macklem's recent statements.

Factors Driving Property Prices Up
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1. Low Interest Rates: When borrowing costs are low, people are more inclined to take out mortgages, increasing demand for homes. This typically drives prices up.
2. Economic Growth: A strong economy, characterized by rising employment and higher incomes, enhances people’s ability to buy homes, pushing property prices higher.
3. Limited Supply: If there aren’t enough homes to meet demand due to regulatory constraints, land availability, or construction costs, prices are likely to rise.
4. Population Growth: An increasing population, especially in urban areas, leads to higher demand for housing, driving up prices.
5. Inflation: When the cost of goods and services goes up, so does the cost of building materials and labour, which can lead to higher property prices.

Factors Leading to Lower Property Prices

1. High Interest Rates: If borrowing becomes more expensive, fewer people can afford mortgages, reducing demand and potentially lowering property prices.
2. Economic Downturn: During recessions or periods of high unemployment, people’s ability to buy homes decreases, which can lead to lower property prices.
3. Increased Supply: If there’s a surge in new home construction or more existing homes come onto the market and demand doesn’t keep pace, prices could fall.
4. Government Policies: Policies like increased property taxes, stricter lending regulations, or initiatives to boost housing supply can impact property prices.
5. Decreased Demand: Factors like population decline, changing buyer preferences, or reduced investment in real estate can lower demand, leading to falling prices.

Current Economic Context (July 2024)In a recent Financial Post article, Tiff Macklem discussed how the Bank of Canada's focus is shifting from controlling high inflation to worrying about inflation falling too low. Here’s a summary of his key points and my take on them:

1. Worrying About Low Inflation: Macklem's concern about inflation falling too low reflects a belief in the need for constant economic intervention. Historically, such attempts can lead to unintended consequences like financial bubbles and resource misallocation. Instead, the central bank should focus on maintaining monetary stability.
2. Interest Rate Adjustments: Macklem mentioned the need for "somewhat restrictive policy" but also hinted at potential rate cuts. The idea that the central bank can precisely control the economy by toggling interest rates is overestimated. High levels of household debt in Canada and declining economic growth indicate that past policies have already distorted the economic landscape. Lowering rates further could exacerbate these issues.
3. Inflation Targets: The worry about not hitting a 2% inflation target overlooks the fact that inflation affects different sectors in varied ways. True economic health can't be judged by a single number; it requires a range of indicators reflecting the real well-being of the populace.
4. Trade Disruptions: Macklem also touched on potential trade issues if Donald Trump becomes President again. While trade policies are crucial, the central bank shouldn't focus on unpredictable political outcomes. Instead, it should provide a stable monetary environment for businesses and consumers to make informed decisions.
5. Central Bank's Role: The central bank should focus on stability rather than experimenting with new tools like quantitative easing, which have long-term consequences that we don't fully understand. Economic freedom and market mechanisms, not central bank interventions, are the true drivers of prosperity.

In conclusion, predicting property prices involves a multifaceted approach, much like anticipating the next breakthrough in technology. By staying informed about interest rates, economic health, and shifts in housing supply and demand, we can better understand the dynamics of property prices.

The insights from Tiff Macklem provide a window into the complex world of central banking, but we must remember that stability and predictability are paramount. Just as in the tech world, where innovation thrives on a stable platform, the economy flourishes best under predictable and sound monetary policies.

By understanding these factors and insights, we can navigate the real estate market more effectively, just as we navigate the complexities of technological advancements. Stay informed, stay prepared, and always be ready for the next change on the horizon.

Sarah Colucci, Senior Mortgage Agent Level 2
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker 12176
Direct: (647) 773-4849
Email: [email protected] 

Big news today, folks. The Bank of Canada has made a significant move by cutting interest rates again. They’re taking steps to get the economy back on track, and it’s a decision that has everyone talking. Let’s dive into what this means and why it’s happening.

The Big Move: Another Rate Cut

The Bank of Canada, led by Governor Tiff Macklem, has lowered its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision was widely anticipated given the current economic conditions. Inflation has been easing, and the economy isn’t exactly thriving. The concern is that keeping interest rates high might slow things down more than necessary.

Governor Macklem emphasized the need for growth, stating that this was a key factor in their decision to cut the rate. It's a smart move. Growth is essential, and high rates can stifle economic progress.

The Shift in Tone

Douglas Porter, BMO’s chief economist, noted a clear shift in the central bank’s tone. He believes the Bank of Canada is leaning towards more interest rate cuts. The labor market is currently weak, with unemployment rising to 6.4% and job creation not keeping pace with population growth. It’s clear that more jobs are needed to stimulate the economy.

Future Cuts on the Horizon?

Several commercial banks are predicting more rate cuts before the end of the year. Porter thinks another cut could happen soon. While Governor Macklem didn’t provide specific details about future rate decisions, he did mention that the path forward might include some bumps along the way. Inflation is decreasing, but not in a straight line. There’s a push and pull dynamic, especially with shelter and other services keeping prices up.

Macklem expressed confidence that inflation is heading back to the target, but it won’t be a smooth journey. If inflation continues to ease, more rate cuts are likely. The timing will depend on how these opposing forces play out.

Canada vs. U.S.

Canada was the first in the G7 to lower its policy rate, followed by the European Central Bank. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to follow suit soon. Macklem acknowledged that there’s a limit to how much Canada’s rates can diverge from those in the U.S., but we’re not close to that limit yet.

Economic Forecast

The Bank of Canada’s new forecast suggests inflation will return to the 2% target next year. While the economy is currently weak, it’s expected to strengthen in the second half of 2024. Real GDP growth is projected to be 1.2% this year, rising to 2.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026.

It’s clear that the Bank of Canada is trying to navigate these challenging economic waters. They’re cutting rates to stimulate growth, and that’s a positive step. We’ll need to monitor how this plays out, but for now, it looks like they’re on the right track.
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Stay tuned for more updates. We’re going to keep winning and making great economic strides. Please feel free to reach out to us with any mortgage questions you have! 

Sarah Colucci, Mortgage Agent Level 2
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker 12176 
Direct: (647) 773-4849
Email: [email protected] 
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​Renting vs. Buying in Canada: An Economic Analysis

The ongoing debate between renting and buying a home in Canada is a topic that demands a thorough economic analysis, stripped of emotional biases and misconceptions. Understanding the economic principles and empirical data is crucial to making informed decisions. Let's delve into the current state of the rental and homebuying markets in Canada through a lens of economic reasoning.


The Reality of the Rental Market In 2023, Canada's rental market presented a textbook case of supply and demand.

The country experienced a vacancy rate of just 1.5%, the lowest in recent history, which naturally led to a sharp increase in rental prices. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), rents in the purpose-built rental market increased by 8%, the fastest rate since 1992.

This surge in rental prices is not an isolated event but rather a consequence of population growth and a resilient post-pandemic economy. When demand for rental properties outstrips supply, prices will inevitably rise—a fundamental economic principle.

As we look to 2024, the rental market shows no signs of slowing down. The Canadian Consumer Price Index reported an 8.6% increase in rents as of March 2024. However, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada could provide some relief. Lower borrowing costs may ease financial pressures on landlords and potentially slow the rate of rent increases, as some renters transition into homeownership.

The Homebuying Market: Interest Rates and Affordability

The home buying market in Canada has been significantly impacted by interest rate changes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada maintained an overnight lending rate of 0.25%, but this rate climbed to 5% by July 2023 as an anti-inflation measure. This increase in borrowing costs led to a decline in home sales and exacerbated affordability issues for many Canadians.

Nevertheless, the economics of homebuying are more complex than just interest rates. The national average home price stood at $670,417 in December 2023, reflecting persistent demand and limited supply. Prices remain elevated, particularly in regions like the Atlantic, Ontario, B.C., and Alberta, where they are significantly above pre-pandemic levels.

Looking ahead, TD Economics predicts a resurgence in home sales and potential price increases in the latter half of 2024, contingent on expected rate cuts. This anticipated recovery underscores a key economic principle: lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, making homeownership more accessible and stimulating market activity.

Economic Realities and Policy Implications

The fundamental question remains: should one rent or buy?

As always, the answer is nuanced and depends on individual circumstances. For renters, the high cost of living in urban centers like Toronto and Vancouver may limit future rent hikes, but affordability issues persist. In contrast, areas with strong population growth, such as Edmonton and Calgary, are likely to see continued rent increases.

For potential homebuyers, the market may become more favorable in the latter half of 2024 if interest rates are cut. However, affordability pressures in provinces like Ontario and B.C. might temper overall price gains, presenting a somewhat mixed outlook.

Conclusion

“There are no solutions, only trade-offs.” The decision to rent or buy a home is complex, influenced by a myriad of economic factors and individual circumstances. By critically analyzing these dynamics and understanding the underlying economic principles, individuals can make more informed decisions.

As we navigate the intricacies of the Canadian housing market, it is crucial to recognize that both renting and buying have distinct economic implications. Only through a rigorous examination of these factors can one make choices that align with their financial goals and personal circumstances.

For a complimentary consulation, please feel free to give us a call.

Sarah Colucci, Mortgage Agent Level 2
Sherwood Mortgage Group, Broker 12176 
Direct: (647) 773-4849
​Email: [email protected]

Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 2.7% in June, down from 2.9% in May, driven mainly by a slowdown in gas price increases. This reduction in inflation could potentially clear the way for another Bank of Canada interest rate cut.

Gas prices saw a modest rise of 0.4% year-over-year in June compared to a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, inflation would have been 2.8%.

Other areas showing reduced price growth included shelter inflation, which rose by 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.4% in May, and transportation, which slowed to 2% from 3.5% in May. However, rent inflation remained high at 8.8%, and mortgage interest costs rose significantly by 22.3%.

The price of durable goods declined by 1.8% year-over-year, with passenger vehicle sales seeing the largest drop since February 2015. Despite these improvements, the price of services continued to rise, reaching 4.8% in June, up from 4.6% in May.

Food costs also increased, with store-bought food prices rising by 2.1% year-over-year in June, compared to 1.5% in May. Over the past three years, store-bought food prices have risen by 21.9%, though the overall inflation in this category has been decreasing since January 2023.
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Economists suggest that persistent pressure in certain areas, such as rent and mortgage interest costs, is due to high demand and limited supply.

As we move through 2024, it’s essential to understand the evolving dynamics of Canada’s economy and housing market. Here’s a snapshot of where we stand and what to expect in the coming months.

Mild Recession and Tepid Recovery

Mortgage Professionals Canada's (MPC) latest projections indicate that Canada’s GDP growth for 2024 has been revised upward to 0.2%, thanks to a robust expansion in the first quarter. However, it anticipates a shallow downturn in the upcoming quarters, primarily due to the delayed effects of past interest rate hikes on consumer spending, housing, and business investment. The good news is that a gradual recovery is expected to begin in the fourth quarter as interest rates ease and government spending lends support.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

While inflation has slowed, it remains above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. In response, the central bank has started cutting interest rates, but it will proceed cautiously, closely monitoring the data for any signs of resurgent inflation. MPC anticipates further rate cuts to 4.25% by December 2024, contingent on economic performance and inflation trends.

Rising Unemployment

The unemployment rate is on the rise, driven by slower hiring and continued strong population growth from immigration. MPC expects this trend to continue, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 7.5% by the end of the year. This weakening labour market could further dampen consumer spending and overall economic activity.

Housing Market Under Pressure

Higher interest rates and mortgage payment shocks are putting significant pressure on the housing market. Prices are expected to fall further in the near term, though they will likely remain unaffordable for many. The recent interest rate cuts and the prospect of further reductions offer some relief to borrowers, easing the financial pressure on households.

Home Construction and Resale Market

While the pace of new home construction has slowed, a potential pickup in housing starts is anticipated later this year and into 2025. The resale market, although sluggish, may be nearing a bottom. Sales volumes have increased slightly, but a sustained price recovery is expected later this year or early next year.


Overall Outlook

Looking ahead, improvements in the macro environment should pave the way for a more stable and sustainable market in the years to come. However, affordability will remain a key challenge, and the path to recovery is likely to be gradual and uneven across different regions. Despite recent upticks in inflation, our forecast remains for it to slow to the Bank of Canada's 2% target by mid-2025, as economic slack builds and global prices stabilize.

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Regional Insights:

Ontario’s economic outlook is currently overshadowed by significant challenges. Consumer spending is expected to contract this summer due to high interest rates, mortgage renewals, falling house prices, and job losses, particularly in the manufacturing sector. The shutdown of Ford Motor’s Oakville plant until 2027 will likely result in more layoffs, further impacting the region’s recovery.
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In conclusion, while Canada faces economic and housing market challenges, there are glimmers of hope for stabilization and recovery. By staying informed and adapting to these evolving conditions, we can navigate this complex landscape and work towards a more sustainable future.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as we continue to monitor these developments.

​Investing in real estate is a time-tested strategy for building wealth, and the Canadian market presents a particularly compelling opportunity right now. Here’s why Canadian real estate is a wise investment, especially considering the current trends in immigration.

Stable and Growing Economy

Canada boasts one of the most stable and robust economies in the world. With a well-regulated financial system, strong natural resources sector, and thriving technology and service industries, the country provides a solid foundation for real estate investment. Economic stability translates into steady demand for housing, making real estate a reliable asset class.

Record Immigration Levels

Canada is experiencing record levels of immigration, driven by progressive policies and a welcoming stance toward newcomers. The government has set ambitious targets for bringing in new immigrants, aiming to welcome over 400,000 newcomers annually. This influx of people is not just a statistic; it’s a driving force behind the demand for housing.

Impact on Home Prices

As more people move to Canada, the demand for housing naturally increases. This demand is particularly strong in major urban centers like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, where many immigrants choose to settle. Increased demand leads to higher home prices, benefiting real estate investors who can capitalize on this upward trend. The correlation between immigration and rising home prices is a clear indicator of the potential for appreciation in property values.

Diverse Opportunities

The Canadian real estate market offers diverse investment opportunities, from residential properties to commercial real estate and development projects. Whether you’re looking to purchase a family home, invest in rental properties, or explore commercial ventures, there’s a wealth of options to suit different investment strategies and risk profiles.

Government Support and Incentives

The Canadian government provides various incentives and support programs for homebuyers and real estate investors. These include favorable tax treatments, grants for first-time homebuyers, and policies aimed at maintaining housing affordability. Such measures create a conducive environment for investment and help mitigate risks.

Long-Term Growth Prospects
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Real estate is inherently a long-term investment, and Canada’s demographic trends suggest sustained growth in the housing market. With a growing population fueled by immigration, the demand for housing is expected to remain strong for years to come. This long-term growth potential makes Canadian real estate an attractive option for investors seeking stability and appreciation.

In summary, investing in Canadian real estate is a wise choice due to the country’s stable economy, record immigration levels driving demand, diverse opportunities, and supportive government policies. By understanding these factors, investors can make informed decisions and capitalize on the growth potential in this dynamic market.